New Jersey's 2025 Election: A Pivotal Moment in the Garden State's Political Landscape

As the polls opened on November 4, 2025, in New Jersey, much more than a race itself was put on the line: Voters of the Garden State faced a gubernatorial election, a full slate of legislative contests, and local positions that together signal the direction of the state-economically, socially, and politically-for the coming years.

The Big Picture: Governor, Legislature, and Reform

This year’s election cycle is especially important, as the governorship was open. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, was term-limited and couldn't seek reelection, thus setting up one very contested race.

Meanwhile, the entire 80-seat assembly of the state’s lower legislative chamber — the New Jersey General Assembly — is up for election, offering either affirmation of the status quo or meaningful change.

Another important backdrop is the reform of New Jersey’s primary ballot design.  For many decades, the so-called “county line” – a placement of party-endorsed candidates in favored positions on primary ballots – gave major party machines a strong advantage. That system has now officially been eliminated.

Together, these developments make 2025 one of the more consequential off-year elections in New Jersey in recent memory.

Gubernatorial Race: Who's Running and What It Means

On the Democratic side, the nominee is US Representative Mikie Sherrill, who won a crowded primary. The Republican nominee is Jack Ciattarelli, who ran in 2021 and won the nomination again this year.

Sherrill's candidacy represents continuity for Democrats — with the outgoing governor being a Democrat — but for her to succeed she will have to convince voters that the party can address lingering concerns about high taxes, affordability, infrastructure, and public-safety issues.

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli built off his campaign from before and seems to be focusing more on fiscal issues, property taxes, and appealing to voters who feel disenchanted with the current state of affairs.

Because New Jersey has not elected a governor from the same party for three consecutive terms since the early 1960s, this race carries national significance as a barometer for both parties.

Legislative Stakes: Assembly and Beyond

Every two years, the entire New Jersey General Assembly is up for election — 80 seats. Democrats have held the majority since the early 2000s — in 2023 they held 52 seats, Republicans 28.

Because the governor's race is likely to affect legislative results - and vice versa - many of the Assembly contests are receiving new attention. Grass-roots movements, local issues and the newly reformed ballot system make some districts more competitive than in years past.

Primary ballot reform could open up the possibility of insurgent candidates - from within parties and outside of parties - to capture party nominations and perhaps topple incumbents. In turn, that might have wider repercussions in the general election.

Voter Engagement and Early Voting

One of the most significant developments this cycle in New Jersey is the expanded early-in-person voting window and increasing use of mail and early ballots. According to the state's Division of Elections, for the general election, the early-voting period ran from Oct. 25 to Nov. 2.

In the primary election earlier this year, held June 10, turnout varied meaningfully in the key counties. For example, in Hunterdon County turnout was approximately 25.6% overall, with Republican turnout higher than Democratic.

Due to early voting and shifting ballot structure, campaigns are investing more in outreach, mail-in operations, and turnout efforts than they have in past off-year elections.

Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment

Several themes dominate voters’ minds as they head to the polls:

Cost of Living & Property Taxes: New Jersey still remains among the states with the highest property tax burdens in the country. Many voters feel the pinch on real estate, commuting, and housing costs. Both campaigns are making this central.

Infrastructure & Transit: Whether it's aging transit systems like NJ Transit and commuter bottlenecks, voters outside of major metros want better mobility and public-transport reliability.

Education & Safety – School quality remains a major concern, along with crime and public-safety policy. These are particularly identified by suburban voters as deciding issues.

Partisan and Structural Reform – With the end of the county-line ballot and a growing appetite for change in how politics is done in New Jersey, many voters think their vote may have more impact than in previous years.

Identity of Party Machines – Reform of the ballot structure is a symbolic and actual blow to political machines in many counties.  Candidates that were not supported by the party establishment now believe they have better shot in the primaries.

Why This Election Matters Regionally and Nationally

Although New Jersey has generally been considered a reliably Democratic state in federal elections, 2025 may bring changes that reflect deeper voter attitudes. Here's why:

Off-year elections mean turnout dynamics often differ and the electorate may tilt differently than presidential years in the governor's race.

Because the ballot reform levels the playing field, the outcomes may reflect voter preference more than machine influence.

The outcome will be closely watched for what it says about suburban voters, independents and the volatility of so-called safe districts.

As one of only two states in 2025 holding a major gubernatorial election, the other being Virginia, New Jersey becomes a kind of political bellwether for 2026 midterm trends.

What to Watch On Election Day

Here are some indicators that will tell us a lot about where New Jersey is heading:

Early Voting Numbers: Compare early-in-person and mail-in turnout this cycle to prior years. Higher early turnout often benefits challengers and indicates strong engagement.

Suburban vs. Urban Performance: Which party gains in suburban districts will be a key barometer. If Republicans make those gains, Democrats may have to reconsider their strategy.

Down-Ballot Races: Legislative and local races often show longer-term shifts. Keep an eye out for surprise wins in traditionally safe seats.

Post-Primary Upsets: The eliminating of the county line likely means any significant primary upsets may be a harbinger of more competitive general-election dynamics.

Turnout Demographics: Will younger voters, independents and unaffiliated voters show up at heightened rates? These groups often tip tight races.

Challenges & Uncertainties

Despite the momentous setup, there are a number of uncertain variables: Voter Fatigue: In off-year elections, voter turnout is usually lower. With a low voter turnout, entrenched interests could still have an advantage. Economic Headwinds: If economic conditions worsen-for example, high inflation, job losses, and commuting costs-the dissatisfaction of voters may come out for change, but in which direction is not certain. Campaign Funding and Messaging: High costs mean messaging that resonates locally matters now more than ever. National dynamics might influence but won't determine the New Jersey outcomes entirely. Unpredictable Local Factors: Local races, regional issues, and candidate quality will matter. New Jersey is not monolithic — urban, suburban, and rural areas differ markedly. Final Thoughts The election in New Jersey in 2025 is more than just another ballot but reflects a point of institutional and political transition. With new ballot rules, an open governorship, and a full legislative slate, the voters can reshape not just who leads but how they lead. Democrats will see retention of the governorship and protection of their legislative majority as an indicator that their coalition remains in place amidst economic pressures and demands for reform. Republicans have an opportunity to show that New Jersey can be more competitive than its federal reputation would suggest. The clear message to the overall electorate is that your vote now may carry more weight than ever before. Reduced structural bias in primaries, a more accessible early voting window, and heightened awareness of local issues mean the Garden State has a possibility to surprise. In coming days, we'll have the full results, but whoever wins, the winners will face no shortage of challenges: fulfilling promises on affordability, infrastructure, education, and reform will be paramount. The future of New Jersey politics in 2026 and beyond is likely to revolve around how well the winner-and the legislature-meets the expectations brought forth by this consequential election day.